Here is one metric provided by the National Weather Service relative to the snow drought in Rochester, which I think is symptomatic of much of the country:  In a normal winter, there are 76 days where the ground is covered be at least one inch of snow.  The record for the least amount of such days is 35.  So far this year there have been just 9 such days!  (BTW, the record for the least amount of snowfall is 11 inches which was set in the winter of 1932-33.  That record is safe.)

The other city we included in our analogue forecast for the Great Lakes was Chicago.  And there certainly has been a snow drought there, as well.  The total seasonal snowfall to date in Chicago stands at 13.9 inches.  The normal snowfall to date is 22.9 inches and by this time last year there had been 50.1 inches of snow.

The numbers in Rochester and Chicago are consistent with what our analogue forecast suggested.  So far, so good.

The cold air coming to the Midwest and Northeast over the next 10 days will come in two or three surges with a spell of modestly milder air coming after each surge. This will result from the NAO going negative (please see our first blog in December for terminology explanations) during a developing +PNA pattern. This will allow Siberian air to cross over the North Pole, rush through Canada and then enter the United States via potent arctic fronts.

The –NAO appears likely to have resulted from the stratospheric warming event that we detailed several weeks ago.  The result is going to be more typical winter conditions across the northern third of the country over the next one to two weeks, including air that is colder than normal more times than not and enhanced risks of accumulating snow.  For Rochester and the Finger Lakes this means more snow and more cold than we have seen so far this winter, not that that is saying much.

Well, the New Year is but three days old as I write this and we have already experienced colder conditions than were observed at any time in November and December.   

As some of you know, one of the services I provide to clients through my forecasting company, Weather-Track, is mid and long range weather projections.

Part of what I am trying to do in these blogs is give you, our viewers, a look at some of the thoughts and the challenges associated with attempting to project weather trends over a time span of weeks and months.

While computers do guide us, they are not as important or useful as recognizing global patterns and trends, some of which I addressed and defined in our first blog, back on December 1.  

As you read through these blogs, I encourage you to email me your questions at kwilliams@whec.com -- I will do my best to respond, as time permits.